Housing Sales Picking Up in Klamath County

This article was in Friday’s (December 30th, 2016) Herald and News

Written By: Gerry O’Brien, H&N Editor 

It appears the housing market in the Klamath Basin is on the road to a full recovery, but there are still some speed bumps to overcome.

The Klamath County Association of Realtors recently released its year-end stats for home sales. The group’s chairman of the governmental affairs committee, Randy Shaw, and president and CEO of Coldwell Banker Holman Premier Realty, notes:

  • The total dollar volume of residential homes sold in 2016 was $150,834,410 or a 7 percent increase over the previous year;
  • The average sales price in the fourth quarter was $176,491 or a 10 percent increase over 2015;
  • And the number of residential units sold was 941, a 7 percent increase over 2015.

“We’re seeing a large uptick in the numbers,” Shaw said last week. “Commercial property is starting to move, too.”

“In 2014, we had about a 4.5 percent gain in the dollar volume sold. In 2015, we saw a 7 percent increase in total dollar volume and total units sold. Last year, there was $142 million in total sales; this year about $151 million in sales. That up $10 million,” Shaw said.

A recovery pace

And that is where the market should be at as a telltale sign it has pulled out of the recession, Shaw has said in the past. When the market hits that 7 percent pace that makes it more stable, he noted.

“I look for a 9 or 10 percent increase in 2017,” he said.

This year, there were 82 new housing starts, up about 20 homes from the previous year.

“New construction stimulates a lot of things in the economy,” Shaw said. “It means jobs for electricians, plumbers, framers, roofers, sheetrockers, lumber sales people, concrete. What one new house does to the economy is very important.”

Where are the buyers coming from?

Shaw said the majority of buyers are retirees from Northern California (the Bay Area on up) and from Reno and Carson City, Nev.

“What I’m convinced of is that we are drawing people in who are retirees due to our affordability. It is just about unmatched in southern or central Oregon,” he said.

For example, a 1,700-square-foot home at Pheasant Run subdivision off Homedale Avenue, sells for about $265,000. In Bend, the same floorplan sells for about $485,000 and has less acreage. The value to a retiree is great because it gives them more disposable income; money they would spend on dining out, for example, or putting into their property in the form of improvements.

The second wave of home buyers are the young professionals, young families.

“We are also seeing several small businesses expanding, thanks to the help of the Klamath County Economic Development Association (KCEDA) and those people are coming in for jobs, family wage jobs. Sky Lakes Medical Center is also bringing in new families,” Shaw said.

Average home price climbing

The total residential housing units sold in 2015 was 881; this last year it topped 940.

“And here’s a biggie,” Shaw said. “The average sale price of a home was $162,000 in 2015. This year it was $176,000; almost a 10 percent increase.”

Further, the list of homes that were foreclosed on by lenders from the recession – and are still in the market – are selling for an average of $87,000. Once those homes are out of the market and off the books, the average home sale price should climb to about $190,000, Shaw said.

Also, it was rare that a higher-end, $400,000 home sold in the county. That is starting to pick up as well, he said.

The big challenge the area faces is convincing developers the Basin is a smart place to invest.

There are several large subdivisions awaiting development; such as the Regency subdivision near Hosanna school; the River Run subdivision; Southview and other property adjacent to the Stewart-Lennox and south suburban areas; all have about 200 lots on them.

“We still have a fair amount of inventory on that type of property,” Shaw said. “But if you look at the restrictions being placed on the more populated towns in Oregon – Portland, Salem, Beaverton – they have nowhere to expand. We have less restrictions here.”

Appraiser in short supply: ‘ an almost catastrophic shortage’

There is one fly in the ointment to the improving housing numbers in Klamath County and that is the lack of property appraisers.

The delay between a home buyer’s offer and the actual closing can take up to 4½ months, compared to 45 days as was the norm a few years ago. That directly affects the seller’s ability to move a home in the short term and an overall economic impact on the community in the long term.

“We have an almost catastrophic shortage of appraisers, not only in Klamath County, but across the nation,” said Randy Shaw, president and CEO of Coldwell Banker Holman Premier Realty.

“We are in the top 15 percent that are being adversely affected by this situation. We started feeling it long before Bend or Medford did and, it’s a much more compounding problem to us,” Shaw said.

Value match

When a seller offers a home, and a buyer agrees on a price, the appraiser is called in to see if the home’s value matches or is in the ballpark of that price. Lenders rely on appraisers to make that assessment. If the price is out of whack, the lender may nix the deal.

Appraising sometimes has been more art than science, but when the Great Recession hit, one federal regulation that was put in place was more accountability of their work.

Under the Dodd-Frank Act (a wide-sweeping consumer protection bill aimed, in part, at preventing lenders from making home loans to those who could not afford it) an appraiser has to agree to be responsible for his assessment for the duration of a home loan. That makes their appraisals extremely conservative. Also, appraisers now have to have bachelor’s degrees and do about 2,000 hours of internship before they can become certified.

“Our appraisals are now about 90 days out,” Shaw said. “That’s not the closing date, but that’s when an appraiser will show up to look at the home.” From there, it takes about two weeks to do up a report and another two to three weeks for the lender to sign off on it.

“So you’re looking at a 4½ month process to buy a house,” Shaw said. In that time, lending rates could climb past what a buyer is able to afford. Or, the time for the lock on the loan could expire. Or, the loan could be denied. That means the seller is left holding the bag and has to start the sales process over again. And the cash flow for real estate agents is being extended for months.

‘Outlandish amounts’

“We are seeing both the seller and buyer being damaged,” Shaw said. “Appraisers are getting paid outlandish amounts of money to come and do an appraisal, sometimes in the thousands of dollars.”

The average appraisal used to cost about $500. Now average is closer to $700, Shaw said.

There used to be about 14 full-time appraisers in the Basin, but that number has dropped to about six as some have retired or left the business.

Since there are federal laws that affect appraisers, not much may be done in the short term to affect the drought. However, Shaw hopes that community colleges could offer appraisal courses and certificates, and that might spark more interest in the profession.

For the next five years, Shaw predicts, the problem will only get worse.

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